{"id":8719,"date":"2020-08-31T12:14:51","date_gmt":"2020-08-31T09:14:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com.tr\/blog\/?p=8719"},"modified":"2020-08-31T12:14:51","modified_gmt":"2020-08-31T09:14:51","slug":"black-hat-2020-risk-assessment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com.tr\/blog\/black-hat-2020-risk-assessment\/8719\/","title":{"rendered":"Siber riskler de\u011ferlendirirken yap\u0131lan yayg\u0131n hatalar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bir olay\u0131n neden olaca\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7ek hasar birka\u00e7 bin dolar\u0131 ge\u00e7miyorsa, kimse bir \u015firketi korumak i\u00e7in milyonlarca dolar harcamak istemez. Ve e\u011fer bir veri s\u0131z\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n potansiyel zarar\u0131 y\u00fczbinlerce dolar\u0131 bulabiliyorsa, g\u00fcvenlikten 100 dolar tasarruf etmek i\u00e7in kestirme yollar\u0131 kullanmak da \u00e7ok ak\u0131ll\u0131ca de\u011fildir. Ya\u015fanacak bir siber kriz nedeniyle \u015firketin u\u011frayaca\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k zarar\u0131 hesaplamak i\u00e7in hangi bilgileri kullanman\u0131z gerekir ve b\u00f6yle bir olay\u0131n ger\u00e7ek olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l \u00f6l\u00e7ersiniz? Black Hat 2020 konferans\u0131nda, iki ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 \u2014 Virginia Tech\u2019ten Profes\u00f6r Wade Baker ve Cyentia Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc\u2019nde k\u0131demli analist David Seversky \u2014 risk de\u011ferlendirmesine ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini sundular. Sunduklar\u0131 arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131 daha ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 \u015fekilde tart\u0131\u015fmaya de\u011fer bulduk.<\/p>\n<p>Paras\u0131n\u0131 hak eden herhangi bir siber g\u00fcvenlik kursu, risk de\u011ferlendirmesinin iki ana fakt\u00f6re dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6\u011fretir: Bir olay\u0131n ya\u015fanma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve potansiyel kay\u0131plar\u0131. Peki bu veriler nereden geliyor ve daha da \u00f6nemlisi, nas\u0131l yorumlanmal\u0131? Sonu\u00e7ta, olas\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n yanl\u0131\u015f de\u011ferlendirilmesi yanl\u0131\u015f sonu\u00e7lara yol a\u00e7ar ve bu da optimum olmayan koruma stratejileriyle sonu\u00e7lan\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h2>Aritmetik ortalama bir g\u00f6sterge midir?<\/h2>\n<p>Bir\u00e7ok \u015firket, veri s\u0131z\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 olaylar\u0131n\u0131n neden oldu\u011fu maddi kay\u0131plara ili\u015fkin ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar yap\u0131yor. \u201cTemel bulgular\u0131\u201d genellikle benzer b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckteki \u015firketlerin kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n ortalamalar\u0131d\u0131r. Sonu\u00e7 matematiksel olarak ge\u00e7erli ve say\u0131lar da \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 man\u015fetlerde harika g\u00f6r\u00fcnebilir, ancak riskleri hesaplamak i\u00e7in buna ger\u00e7ekten g\u00fcvenebilir miyiz?<\/p>\n<p>Ayn\u0131 verileri, yatay eksendeki kay\u0131plar\u0131 ve dikey eksendeki kay\u0131plara neden olan olaylar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi\u011finiz bir grafikle sundu\u011funuzda, aritmetik ortalaman\u0131n do\u011fru bir g\u00f6sterge olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p><code>Olaylar\u0131n %90'\u0131nda ortalama kay\u0131plar, aritmetik ortalamadan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fcr.<\/code><\/p>\n<p>Ortalama bir i\u015fletmenin u\u011frayaca\u011f\u0131 kay\u0131plardan bahsediyorsak, di\u011fer g\u00f6stergeler \u2014 \u00f6zellikle medyan (\u00f6rne\u011fi, rapor edilen rakamlar\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek, yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olaca\u011f\u0131 \u015fekilde iki e\u015fit par\u00e7aya b\u00f6len bir say\u0131) ve geometrik ortalama (orant\u0131l\u0131 ortalama) daha anlaml\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7o\u011fu \u015firket tam da b\u00f6yle kay\u0131plarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yad\u0131r. Aritmetik ortalama, anormal derecede b\u00fcy\u00fck kay\u0131plara sahip az say\u0131daki harici olay nedeniyle \u00e7ok kafa kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir rakam ortaya \u00e7\u0131karabilir.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_8721\" style=\"width: 711px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8721\" class=\"wp-image-8721 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/media.kasperskydaily.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/91\/2020\/08\/31113841\/black-hat-2020-risk-assessment-distribution.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"701\" height=\"312\"><p id=\"caption-attachment-8721\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Alt\/caption: Veri s\u0131z\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 olaylar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan kay\u0131plar\u0131n da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cyentia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/IRIS2020_cyentia.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Kaynak<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2>S\u0131zan bir veri kayd\u0131n\u0131n ortalama maliyeti<\/h2>\n<p>\u015e\u00fcpheli bir \u201cortalama\u201dn\u0131n ba\u015fka bir \u00f6rne\u011fi, etkilenen veri kayd\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bir veri kayd\u0131n\u0131n kayb\u0131ndan kaynaklanan ortalama hasar tutar\u0131yla \u00e7arparak, veri s\u0131z\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131ndan kaynaklanan kay\u0131plar\u0131 hesaplama y\u00f6nteminden gelir. Uygulama, bu y\u00f6ntemin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck olaylar\u0131n kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 hafife ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck olaylar\u0131n kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 ciddi \u015fekilde abartt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fte bir \u00f6rnek: Bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce bir\u00e7ok analiz sitesinde, yanl\u0131\u015f yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bulut hizmetlerin \u015firketlere yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 trilyon dolara mal oldu\u011funu iddia eden bir haber payla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Bu astronomik tutar\u0131n nereden geldi\u011fini ara\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda, 5 trilyon dolarl\u0131k rakam\u0131n, basit\u00e7e \u201cs\u0131zd\u0131r\u0131lan\u201d kay\u0131t say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n, bir kayd\u0131n sebep oldu\u011fu ortalama hasarla (150 USD) \u00e7arp\u0131lmas\u0131yla elde edildi\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu son tutar, Ponemon Institute\u2019un 2019 Veri S\u0131z\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 Maliyeti \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bununla birlikte, hikaye ile ilgili birka\u00e7 uyar\u0131 yap\u0131lmal\u0131. Her \u015feyden \u00f6nce, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma t\u00fcm olaylar\u0131 hesaba katm\u0131yor. \u0130kincisi, sadece kullan\u0131lan \u00f6rne\u011fi dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda bile, aritmetik ortalama kay\u0131plar hakk\u0131nda net bir fikir vermez; yaln\u0131zca kayb\u0131 1 sentten fazla ve 10.000 dolardan az zarara neden olacak kay\u0131tlar dikkate al\u0131n\u0131yor. Dahas\u0131, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n metodolojisinden anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere ortalaman\u0131n, 100.000\u2019den fazla kayd\u0131n etkilendi\u011fi olaylar i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Bu nedenle, yanl\u0131\u015f yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bulut hizmetleri nedeniyle s\u0131zd\u0131r\u0131lan toplam kay\u0131t say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 150 ile \u00e7arpmak temelde yanl\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Bu y\u00f6ntemle ger\u00e7ek bir risk de\u011ferlendirmesi yap\u0131lacaksa, olay\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak kay\u0131p olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fka bir g\u00f6stergesini de i\u00e7ermesi gerekir. Bu, yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr:<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_8722\" style=\"width: 376px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cyentia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/IRIS2020_cyentia.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8722\" class=\"wp-image-8722 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/media.kasperskydaily.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/91\/2020\/08\/31113921\/black-hat-2020-risk-assessment-probability.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"366\" height=\"331\"><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-8722\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Kay\u0131p olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, olaydan etkilenen kay\u0131t say\u0131s\u0131yla ili\u015fkisi. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cyentia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/IRIS2020_cyentia.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Kaynak<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n<h2>Dalga etkisi<\/h2>\n<p>Bir olay\u0131n maliyetini hesaplarken genellikle g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131lan bir di\u011fer fakt\u00f6r, g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz veri s\u0131z\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n birden \u00e7ok \u015firketin \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 etkilemesidir. \u00c7o\u011fu durumda, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc taraf \u015firketlerin (ortaklar, y\u00fckleniciler ve tedarik\u00e7iler) maruz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplam zarar, verilerin s\u0131zd\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015firkete verilen zararlar\u0131 a\u015fmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu t\u00fcr olaylar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131 her y\u0131l artmaktad\u0131r; genel \u201cdijitalle\u015fme\u201d trendi, farkl\u0131 \u015firketlerdeki i\u015f s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinin birbirlerine olan ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k d\u00fczeyini art\u0131r\u0131r. RiskRecon ve Cyentia Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc taraf\u0131ndan ortakla\u015fa y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen <a href=\"https:\/\/www.riskrecon.com\/ripples-across-the-risk-surface\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Ripples Across the Risk Surface ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re<\/a>, bu t\u00fcrden 813 olay, 5.437 i\u015fletmede zarara neden oldu. Yani, veri s\u0131z\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 ya\u015fayan her \u015firket i\u00e7in, ortalama d\u00f6rtten fazla \u015firket bu s\u0131z\u0131nt\u0131dan etkileniyor.<\/p>\n<h2>Uygulanabilir tavsiyeler<\/h2>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak, siber riskleri de\u011ferlendiren mant\u0131kl\u0131 uzmanlar\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tavsiyelere uymas\u0131 gerekir:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u015ea\u015faal\u0131 man\u015fetlere g\u00fcvenmeyin. Bir\u00e7ok site belirli bilgilere sahip olsa bile bunlar\u0131n do\u011frulu\u011fu kesin de\u011fildir. Her zaman iddiay\u0131 destekleyen kayna\u011fa bak\u0131n ve ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar\u0131n metodolojisini kendiniz analiz edin.<\/li>\n<li>Risk de\u011ferlendirmenizde yaln\u0131zca tam olarak anlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z ara\u015ft\u0131rma sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kullan\u0131n.<\/li>\n<li>\u015eirketinizdeki bir olay\u0131n di\u011fer i\u015fletmelerde de veri kayb\u0131na neden olabilece\u011fini unutmay\u0131n. Sizden kaynaklanan bir hata sebebiyle s\u0131z\u0131nt\u0131 meydana gelirse, di\u011fer taraflar b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla size kar\u015f\u0131 yasal yollara ba\u015fvuracak ve bu da olaydan kaynaklanan zarar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde, ortaklar\u0131n ve y\u00fcklenicilerin, hi\u00e7bir \u015fekilde m\u00fcdahale edemedi\u011finiz olaylarda verilerinizi s\u0131zd\u0131rabilece\u011fini unutmay\u0131n.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p> Siber olaylardan kaynaklanan potansiyel kay\u0131plar hesaplan\u0131rken, olay\u0131n yorumlanmas\u0131 kadar istatistiksel veriler de \u00f6nemlidir. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2581,"featured_media":8720,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1726,1194],"tags":[667,950,2257,2259,2258],"class_list":{"0":"post-8719","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-enterprise","8":"category-business","9":"tag-arastirma","10":"tag-black-hat","11":"tag-black-hat-2020","12":"tag-kayiplar","13":"tag-risk-degerlendirmesi"},"hreflang":[{"hreflang":"tr","url":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com.tr\/blog\/black-hat-2020-risk-assessment\/8719\/"},{"hreflang":"en-in","url":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.co.in\/blog\/black-hat-2020-risk-assessment\/21710\/"},{"hreflang":"en-ae","url":"https:\/\/me-en.kaspersky.com\/blog\/black-hat-2020-risk-assessment\/17174\/"},{"hreflang":"en-us","url":"https:\/\/usa.kaspersky.com\/blog\/black-hat-2020-risk-assessment\/23049\/"},{"hreflang":"en-gb","url":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.co.uk\/blog\/black-hat-2020-risk-assessment\/21242\/"},{"hreflang":"es-mx","url":"https:\/\/latam.kaspersky.com\/blog\/black-hat-2020-risk-assessment\/19944\/"},{"hreflang":"es","url":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.es\/blog\/black-hat-2020-risk-assessment\/23698\/"},{"hreflang":"it","url":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.it\/blog\/black-hat-2020-risk-assessment\/22664\/"},{"hreflang":"ru","url":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.ru\/blog\/black-hat-2020-risk-assessment\/28946\/"},{"hreflang":"x-default","url":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com\/blog\/black-hat-2020-risk-assessment\/36798\/"},{"hreflang":"fr","url":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.fr\/blog\/black-hat-2020-risk-assessment\/15505\/"},{"hreflang":"pl","url":"https:\/\/plblog.kaspersky.com\/black-hat-2020-risk-assessment\/13929\/"},{"hreflang":"de","url":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.de\/blog\/black-hat-2020-risk-assessment\/24979\/"},{"hreflang":"zh","url":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com.cn\/blog\/black-hat-2020-risk-assessment\/11845\/"},{"hreflang":"ja","url":"https:\/\/blog.kaspersky.co.jp\/black-hat-2020-risk-assessment\/29064\/"},{"hreflang":"nl","url":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.nl\/blog\/black-hat-2020-risk-assessment\/25966\/"},{"hreflang":"ru-kz","url":"https:\/\/blog.kaspersky.kz\/black-hat-2020-risk-assessment\/22760\/"},{"hreflang":"en-au","url":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com.au\/blog\/black-hat-2020-risk-assessment\/28000\/"},{"hreflang":"en-za","url":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.co.za\/blog\/black-hat-2020-risk-assessment\/27831\/"}],"acf":[],"banners":"","maintag":{"url":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com.tr\/blog\/tag\/black-hat\/","name":"black hat"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8719","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2581"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8719"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8719\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8725,"href":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8719\/revisions\/8725"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8720"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8719"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8719"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kaspersky.com.tr\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8719"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}